Rivian Builds The Case For R2

Rivian’s latest earnings report leaned into growth - projecting a big step up in 2026 deliveries as the R2 moves from hype to production plans. Deliveries are expected to climb to 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles in 2026, up from 42,247 in 2025, as the company gears up for the launch of its smaller, more affordable R2 SUV priced around $45,000. Rivian also outlined a heavier spending plan to get there, with 2026 capital expenditures expected at $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, as it pushes to scale production and broaden its lineup beyond the current R1 vehicles and delivery vans.

The engine behind that optimism is the R2, a smaller and more affordable SUV priced at about $45,000, intended to compete with Tesla’s Model Y. Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe said that volumes of the higher-priced R1 models and delivery vans should be “largely” steady, and that the growth is expected to come from R2, which is a pretty clean thesis for Wall Street - keep the premium halo, add a mass-market ladder.

Getting the R2 to the scale needed to support its price point won’t be cheap. Rivian said 2026 capex is expected at $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, and it forecast an adjusted EBITDA loss of $2.1 billion to $1.8 billion — numbers that underline how capital-intensive the ramp and the company’s in-house autonomous driving push will be. Investors appeared to buy into the pitch, sending the stock up about 10% after hours.

Rivian posted fourth-quarter revenue of $1.29 billion, ahead of analysts’ average estimate of $1.26 billion. Its cash and cash equivalents finished December at $3.58 billion, down from $4.44 billion at the end of September. Now investors get to watch whether Rivian can keep execution tight, manage cash as spending rises, and hit the milestones that move the R2 from a dream ride into a high-volume reality.

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