United Airlines' 2026 Outlook Sends Shares Up

United Airlines had a really good year in 2025 - and their Q4 earnings report can prove it. After posting a better-than-expected fourth quarter, United issued a very shiny outlook for both the current quarter and the rest of 2026, pointing to resilient premium and corporate travel - plus a loyalty business that’s quietly turning into an aircraft-sized annuity.

This story is all about the numbers United put on the table - management expects EPS of between $1.00–$1.50 per share and full-year 2026 adjusted EPS of $12–$14, above the consensus estimate of $13.16. That adjustment implies more than 20% growth at the midpoint compared to last year. According to the earnings release, premium revenue rose 9% and loyalty revenue rose 10% year over year, driving a record-breaking quarterly revenue of about $15.4 billion. Additionally, it mentioned a 7% increase in basic economy ticket sales, indicating a broadened revenue base.

United also acknowledged the kind of “macro headwind” that can’t be fixed with extra legroom - a $250 million hit to pre-tax earnings in Q4 tied to the government shutdown in November. Yet management painted momentum as continuing into early 2026 -including record weekly ticketing and business sales. All in all, the setbacks do seem smaller the more they're compared to all these records being broken.

Since optimism is more credible when it comes with receipts, United laid out a 2026 plan to take delivery of 100+ narrow-body aircraft and around 20 Boeing 787s. The plan also includes sprucing up hubs like Washington Dulles and Houston - while pushing ahead on Starlink Wi-Fi installs. The airline expects capital expenditures of less than $8 billion in 2026. With this combination of robust earnings, a positive outlook, and strong demand trends - it's clear United intends to keep the “upbeat outlook” on a recurring schedule.

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