Equifax Flexes It's Forecast After Solid Q4

Boring can be beautiful — especially when it looks like Equifax's better-than-expected Q4 results and a 2026 outlook that tops consensus. The company said it expects 2026 revenue of $6.6 billion to $6.78 billion, while the analyst prediction sits around $6.59 billion. They posted adjusted EPS of $2.09 for Q4, which beat the $2.05 expectation, which likely contributed to the optimistic 2026 guidance.

While Equifax had an overall strong year in 2025, Q4 reported a 20% jump in U.S. mortgage revenue. This increase is partly due to reduced borrowing costs, which have been reviving refinancing and origination activity - which means more credit checks, more risk assessments, more "please verify this person has ever paid a bill".

Another exciting topic on the call was about VantageScore. Equifax has been using VantageScore since 2017, and economic conditions since then have made alternative credit scoring models increasingly popular. CEO Mark Begor said adoption of the credit score is expected to accelerate as regulatory clarity emerges, with FHFA director Bill Pulte saying in July he will allow Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to use VantageScore 4.0 to increase competition in scoring. That’s notable because the mortgage-scoring market has been dominated by FICO, which laid out plans to sell its scores directly to lenders and resellers last year, skipping the bureaus.

Equifax has introduced several other innovative products besides VantageScore, and definitely seems well-positioned to maintain their market leadership - even as markets debate how much AI can disrupt established software and data businesses. For now, Equifax's Q4 call was a great reminder that data can be dull, dependable, and delightfully profitable all at once.

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