Chevron Balances Black Sea Risk With Nigerian Ambition

Chevron spent the weekend in what can only be described as an energy-market circus act - keeping oil flowing through a war-zone export terminal with one functioning hose while simultaneously signing up for new exploration adventures off the coast of Nigeria. After a Ukrainian naval drone attack heavily damaged key equipment at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal in Novorossiysk, Russia, Chevron said loadings of crude from its Tengizchevroil venture were still going ahead via Single Point Mooring 1 (SPM 1). CPC handles more than 1% of global oil supply, and one of its three mooring points (SPM 2) is now out of action, with SPM 3 already sidelined for repairs since mid-November and expected to take up to two months to fully fix. Analysts at Energy Aspects estimate the drone strikes effectively halved CPC exports, at least temporarily, even though terminal closures were partly precautionary and activity is seen resuming via SPM 1.

On paper, that’s a risk manager’s nightmare. It is the oil-market equivalent of running your entire household on a single overloaded power strip. Yet, the system is still functioning, and Chevron is presenting this as controlled improvisation rather than chaos. Before the attack, Black Sea CPC Blend exports were expected to rise from about 1.45 million barrels per day in November to 1.7 million in December, underscoring how central the route is for Kazakh crude. Now, markets are watching a single offshore buoy like it’s the hero of a blockbuster sequel, while Kazakhstan publicly urges Ukraine to stop attacking the terminal and Ukraine insists it is targeting only Russian aggression, not Kazakh or Western interests.

Instead of hiding under its desk, Chevron spent the same news cycle making new friends in West Africa. TotalEnergies said it will sell a 40% stake in two offshore exploration licenses in Nigeria to Chevron, leaving both companies with 40% each and South Atlantic Petroleum holding the remaining 20%. The blocks sit in Nigeria’s West Delta basin, an area TotalEnergies wants to “de-risk” and develop using shared capital and expertise rather than going it alone. Nigeria already accounts for more than a third of TotalEnergies’ African oil and gas output and 8.5% of its global hydrocarbons, even though its Nigerian production has fallen by about a quarter over the past two decades. For Chevron, it’s a neat way to offset front-page risk in the Black Sea with future barrels from a country that’s trying to reboot its upstream sector.

Chevron is definitely keeping itself busy lately, with one hand keeping a fragile export link alive in the middle of a drone war, the other signing JV papers in Lagos and swapping offshore leases with its French counterpart. This is exactly what big integrated companies are supposed to do - absorb geopolitical shocks in one region while planting new exploration seeds in another. With any luck, consumers won’t notice more than a blip at the pump. The sobering reality of it all is that global oil supply in early December 2025 is, in no small part, hanging on a single mooring buoy in the Black Sea and a handful of signatures on Nigerian exploration licenses—proof that “energy security” sometimes looks less like a master plan and more like a very determined high-wire act.

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