Intel Stock Drops Over Lack Of Capacity

Intel gave investors a very “two slides at once” update in January. The December-quarter numbers came in better than Wall Street expected, but the March-quarter outlook disappointed — and the stock dropped hard as the market questioned Intel's ability to capitalize on strong demand amid ongoing supply challenges.

Intel said Q4 revenue was $13.7 billion - down 4% year over year - and non-GAAP EPS was $0.15. Those results cleared consensus in many previews, which is the kind of “we can still do math” moment turnaround stories need — especially after a year in which the stock had already climbed meaningfully heading into earnings season.

Then came the part the market circled in red. Intel forecast Q1 revenue of $11.7 billion to $12.2 billion - which would be about $360 million below expectations if they nailed it on the upper end of guidance. Intel blames the caution to ongoing supply constraints — particularly around server chips used in AI data centers. The company said it underestimated the demand they're facing and hasn’t been able to fulfill all orders even with factories running full tilt.

This is a capacity-and-execution problem, not a nobody-wants-the-product problem. Intel’s finance chief said supply should improve through the year, and management pointed to ongoing manufacturing and process work as part of the broader turnaround — meaning 2026 is shaping up to be a “prove it quarter-by-quarter” kind of year.

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