🏹Robinhood Doubles Down on Prediction Market Growth

Robinhood is taking its “what if?” obsession to the infrastructure level. The company has teamed up with Susquehanna International Group to acquire a 90% stake in MIAXdx, a regulated U.S. derivatives exchange formerly known as LedgerX, from Miami International Holdings, which will keep the remaining 10%. The deal, announced this week, is designed to give Robinhood and Susquehanna their own CFTC-regulated home for prediction markets, futures, and other event contracts, with the transaction expected to close in the first quarter of 2026.

If prediction markets were once a quirky corner of finance, Robinhood has turned them into a full-blown product line. Since launching event contracts in partnership with Kalshi earlier this year, the company says users have traded more than 9 billion contracts and over 1 million customers have taken part, making prediction markets Robinhood’s fastest-growing business by revenue. Instead of just guessing whether a stock will go up, traders can now speculate on elections, inflation data, sports outcomes, and other yes-or-no questions—basically, all the things people were already arguing about on the internet, just with a price chart attached.

The MIAXdx acquisition is the logical next step in that evolution. Rather than renting space on someone else’s exchange, Robinhood and Susquehanna will own the pipes that list and clear those contracts. That gives them more control over fees, product design, and speed to market as prediction markets go increasingly mainstream, with big incumbents like ICE, CME, and Cboe also circling the space. In classic Robinhood fashion, the move can be spun as “democratizing” access to information markets—though cynics might say it’s really democratizing the opportunity to be hilariously wrong about the next Fed decision in a far more efficient way.

Prediction markets, once treated as regulatory kryptonite, are now attracting serious capital, tight spreads, and heavyweight market makers. With MIAX keeping a 10% stake and getting a front-row seat to the growth of event-driven trading, and Robinhood locking in millions of users who apparently love turning macro takes into trade tickets, prediction markets are quietly becoming a real asset class rather than a Twitter parlor game. Wall Street’s newest product may just be formalized FOMO—only now it settles through a clearinghouse instead of a group chat.

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