Walmart Proves the Discount Giant Still Runs the Consumer Show

Walmart has barely opened the doors this morning, but on Wall Street the party is already in full swing. The retail giant is set to report its fiscal Q3 results before the market opens, and investors are lined up asking, “So… how are American consumers really doing?” Analyst consensus expects roughly $177–178 billion in revenue for the quarter, up between 4.5% - 4.75% year-over-year, and around $0.60 in earnings per share, a notch above last year’s $0.58. Same-store sales in the U.S. are forecast to rise about 4%, with Sam’s Club comps around 5%, according to various previews. Inquiring investors are hoping for a reassuring “You’re fine, it’s just inflation” diagnosis rather than a nasty surprise.

Part of the drama is that this check-up comes just days after Walmart said its CEO, Doug McMillon, will retire on January 31, 2025, after more than a decade in the top job. John Furner, currently running Walmart U.S., will take over as president and CEO on February 1, 2026, while McMillon sticks around as an adviser and board member for a bit longer.

If markets seem oddly relaxed going into this print, it’s because Walmart has already shown it can handle a queasy consumer. In Q2 FY2025, the company reported $177.4 billion in revenue, up 4.8% (or 5.6% in constant currency), with global e-commerce up 25% and its advertising business up a scorching 46% (Walmart Connect in the U.S. up 31%). Even as operating income was pressured by legal and insurance costs, Walmart still delivered adjusted EPS of $0.68 and felt confident enough to raise full-year FY26 guidance for both net sales and earnings. Put bluntly, Walmart now makes a lot of money selling ad space and algorithms along with groceries.

Can Walmart keep growing sales at a mid-single-digit clip, keep coaxing shoppers online, and hand the keys to a new CEO without spooking anyone? Analysts are looking for continued strength in grocery and solid e-commerce growth, plus any hint that membership and advertising can further fatten margins. If the numbers land near or above expectations and guidance stays upbeat, Walmart will have done what they've become known for, which is listen carefully, help families save money, and send America out the door with a healthier-looking portfolio.

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